History won't be on Luke Hodge's side tomorrow night.
 
Of this year's Brownlow Medal favourites, the gun Hawk has sung his club song the least amount of times.

The popular theory is that players in winning teams poll better than those in losing sides.

A glance at the record books supports that belief.

The most recent player to win when his team had only five wins was former Footscray centre half-forward Kelvin Templeton, who polled 23 votes from 22 games in 1980.

Before then, 11 players won football's highest individual honour in sides with five wins or fewer.

Since Bob Skilton in 1963 – he won with 20 votes from 17 games and only four wins – there have only been four players to win with five or fewer wins.

It is not a great omen, but Hodge is fifth favourite with TAB Sportsbet at $12 and had come into $11 after Rounds 21 and 22.

In 10 of his 21 games this season he gathered 30 or more possessions.

Hodge rarely wastes a kick and his class would surely catch the eye of those officiating.

Collingwood captain Nathan Buckley has been an illustrative point in recent years. During some lean years, he was a standout performer and serial collector of votes.

When he won in 2003, tied with Adam Goodes and Mark Ricciuto, Collingwood was playing in a Grand Final after winning 15 games.

Buckley believes there has been a change of thinking in recent years – the winning team no longer need include the best on ground, which could work to Hodge's advantage.

"I think the umpires these days are more likely to give best on grounds to the best performer, even if it's on a losing side," he said.

"I think that's happening more and more, so it probably counts in his favour because he's had standout games.

"Although it's a matter of whether the umpires have a look at the way Hawthorn play – obviously, possession football backward of centre.

"He's still very damaging when he gets the ball, but how damaging I'm not sure."

Buckley said the view that you needed to be in a successful side to win the medal was somewhat dispelled in 1999 when, after missing games, he was still among the leaders.

"I think if someone kicks 10 in a losing side, and there's no absolute standout performer in a winning side, which happens more and more in today's footy, then you'll get the votes," he said.

"It could be an even team performance for the winners and the standout could be on the losing side.

"I think umpires are more comfortable giving the votes to the best performers rather than purely because they're on the winning side."

Another favourite, Bulldog midfielder Scott West, has suffered because of his team's average results.

That was evident in 2000 when he was pipped in the final game by Melbourne midfielder Shane Woewodin, who is now at Collingwood. But West has no issue with the losers gaining less recognition.

"I think the winning teams should have the medallist because they've done the hard work," he said.

"It's a difficult one, but I think you'll see the winner tends to have come from a team with more wins."

Hodge doesn't rate his chances, but there are plenty who believe he could become the newest youngster to take "Charlie" home.

Eagle Chris Judd's win last year seem to place a lot of pressure on Luke Ball, the other member of the awesome trio drafted in 2001.

The Saints won 14 games this season, so it could be Luke Ball's year. On the eighth line of betting at $26, he's not without a chance.